Global Risk Atlas 2025: from risk to opportunity

• In association with Trends and Trends-Tendances, Credendo is publishing the third edition of its Global Risk Atlas, which sees a number of experts take stock of the challenges and opportunities we can expect in 2025
• Based on five themes, the Atlas provides a forecast of the main risks facing the world and its businesses: geopolitics, the rise of populism, demographic transition, climate change and compliance rules
• Businesses will find some food for thought on the opportunities offered by a rapidly changing world: how to identify them and what to look out for, what investment opportunities exist and in which regions?

The Atlas opens with an overview of the many conflicts that have marked the past year. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and tensions surrounding Taiwan and the South China Sea, for example, continued into 2024, threatening global stability and trade relations. So which regions can Belgian exporters still turn to? In this context, emerging countries offer potential for Belgian exporters, although they should not lose sight of the growing competition, the possible emergence of new tariff barriers with the election of Donald Trump, and Europe’s problems in terms of competitiveness. Another finding explored in the Atlas is the rise of populism, a theme previously discussed last year, which has become even more pronounced in recent years. ‘The populist wave is like the backwash of the sea. It seems to recede, and then comes back with a vengeance,’ notes Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO of Credendo. The manifestos promoted by these parties include barriers to immigration and tariff and trade barriers, which are all obstacles to free trade.

Another theme addressed by the Atlas experts is the demographic transition, which is little talked about but which will have considerable consequences in the long term. While Africa continues to experience strong demographic growth, the situation is far more worrying in other regions of the world. In Europe, the falling birth rate and ageing population is a well-established phenomenon, particularly in the southern and eastern regions of the continent. Other regions are also experiencing demographic emergencies, such as Asia (Japan, South Korea, China, etc.) and Latin America (Peru, Chile, etc.). But demographic ageing has major economic consequences, warns Nabil Jijakli. ‘A drop in the working population automatically leads to a slowdown in the employment rate, economic growth and therefore tax revenues,’ adds Credendo’s Deputy CEO. At the same time, spending on pensions and healthcare is soaring.

Climate and the associated risks are once again a major theme in this year’s Atlas. Extreme temperatures are becoming more frequent and rainfall patterns are changing, leading to large-scale flooding in several parts of the world in recent years. It is becoming increasingly urgent for governments to adopt climate policies or strengthen those already in place. Technological advances, and in particular artificial intelligence, have an important role to play in this regard. A pioneering role in sectors with significant future potential offers opportunities for Belgian and European industry.  

Something new this year: the Atlas is devoting an entire section to the reputational risks associated with compliance rules and sanctions. Businesses are increasingly having to comply with regulatory obligations, which include compliance with sometimes highly complex international sanctions. This is a growing risk. Any breach can damage a company’s reputation and even have a direct impact on its business. In such an environment, businesses adapt by investing in legal services and proactively looking after their reputations, which requires non-productive but essential investments.

All five topics in this year’s Global Risk Atlas are covered in a televised debate on Canal Z and Kanaal Z. These discussions are available at https://credendo.com/en/podcasts. 

Download the Global Risk Atlas 2025 in French or Dutch. The English version will be available soon.

Spokesperson:                
Nabil Jijakli                    
Deputy CEO                    
rue Montoyerstraat 3                
1000 Brussels                    
E n.jijakli@credendo.com
M +32 478 25 11 33

Press contact:
Griet Van Gorp
Content and Press Relation Specialist
E g.vangorp@credendo.com 
M +32 473 33 20 50