Senegal: Election postponement raised risk of escalating political violence

Event

Following weeks of deadly demonstrations and the eruption of an unprecedented political crisis earlier this month, a two-day national dialogue was held last week. It was proposed to organise the delayed presidential election on 2 June and for President Macky Sall to remain in office until a successor is sworn in. This proposal was rejected by Senegal’s main opposition leaders, most of whom want the vote to be held before Macky Sall’s mandate expires on 2 April. Recent reconciliation efforts, such as a proposed amnesty bill for political prisoners, have seemingly eased immediate tensions. Nevertheless, the political deadlock will assumably continue at least until an acceptable new poll date is set. In the meantime, the risk for civil unrest and escalating political violence remains high in Senegal.

Impact

Despite Senegal’s reputation of being a stable country with reliable institutions in a turbulent coup-prone region, democracy is backsliding here as well. In recent years, President Macky Sall became increasingly unpopular, and prosecutions of political opponents empowered the anti-government movement. That lead to episodes of civil unrest. Early February, nationwide unrest broke out after President Macky Sall suddenly postponed the presidential elections, scheduled for 25 February, for ten months. He allegedly did so over a dispute about how presidential candidates were being inspected. This reignited concerns over Sall’s attempts to run for a third term, prompting nationwide violent protests. The Constitutional Council declared the election postponement illegal and demanded to organise the elections as soon as possible. Following last week’s national dialogue, 2 June was proposed as the new election date. This date was shot down by the opposition, who do not want the ruling president to stay in power beyond the end of his term on 2 April.

Besides deciding on an election date, another main question will be whether to run the poll with the current 19 selected candidates ¬– thus excluding key opposition leaders Ousmane Sonko and Karim Wade – or restart the entire selection process. This last option is probably preferred by the incumbent president as buying time could boost the ruling party’s chances. They would be able to reshuffle their candidate list since they have doubts about the chances of the currently selected candidate Amadou Ba. Either way, should President Macky Sall remain in power beyond the end of his mandate, there is a high risk of escalating political violence or even military intervention in case the constitutional order breaks down and highly disruptive protests erupt. Moreover, the ruling party’s electoral chances have likely worsened due to their electoral manoeuvring.

In December 2023, Credendo’s downgraded its short-term political risk classification for Senegal to category 5/7 as liquidity was under pressure and large financing gaps were emerging on the external balance of payments despite the expected increase in export revenues with oil and gas production finally coming online. Moreover, the eruptions of deadly unrest over the course of 2023 negatively affected general near-term prospects. The medium- to long-term political risk classification is also in category 5/7 but is under negative watch due to soaring external indebtedness. The unwrapping of the current constitutional crisis will be pivotal for the risk outlook of the country.

Analyst: Louise Van Cauwenbergh – l.vancauwenbergh@credendo.com