Burkina Faso: No ECOWAS sanctions (yet) after last week’s military coup

Event

On 24 January, Burkina Faso’s armed forces seized power, after which the government was dissolved, the constitution was suspended and borders were closed. President Roch Kaboré was ousted by the military group MPSR (Mouvement patriotique pour la sauvegarde et la restoration), led by Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, Burkina Faso’s new military strongman. Nevertheless, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) decided on 3 February, not to impose additional sanctions on Burkina Faso – besides its suspension from the bloc – as it recently did on Mali. ECOWAS asked the country to rapidly propose an election timetable, stating that the junta had shown willingness to return to constitutional order. Yet, if the election process reaches stalemate, this could still prompt harsher sanctions in the coming months. ECOWAS’ leaders also stated that whenever the Malian junta presents a credible timetable to restore constitutional order, their sanctions could be eased.

Impact

Certain civil society leaders immediately expressed their support for the Burkinabe junta, and hundreds of people gathered in the capital and other towns to support the coup. The region’s population seems to be losing faith in building accountable democracies, with dissatisfaction over corruption, raging insecurity and bad governance fuelling civil anger. In Burkina Faso, about 1.5 million people out of a population of 21 million have had to flee their homes over the past three years. People increasingly believe that having the military in charge will help improve the security situation and win the fight against jihadists, as at least soldiers will be equipped and fed.

However, the coup in Burkina Faso will further change the security dynamics in the region and fast-track the jihadist push in the region (mainly affecting Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali), even towards West African coastal nations (Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Senegal). Moreover, anti-French and western sentiment creates growing popular support for a Russian intervention. Consequently, it is expected for Russian Wagner private military contractors – who were deployed to Mali following their military coup – to be invited into Burkina Faso as well. This recent coup is another blow to the West’s campaign against Al-Qaeda and ISIS-affiliated jihadists in the Sahel, following two coups in neighbouring Mali since 2020. Either way, the withdrawal of the 5,100 French soldiers deployed in the Sahel, backed by a number of commandos from other European countries and the United States, who battle alongside regional government forces, will be accelerated, and relations between the military regimes and the western governments will continue to worsen. It remains to be seen whether the Burkinabe junta will be able to swiftly consolidate its authority within the security forces and the state, while managing fallout with important foreign backers and developing a quick strategy to face insurgents who will certainly try to take advantage of the perceived power void and instability. Either way, the outlook for Burkina Faso’s political violence risk – currently in category 6/7 – is leaning to the downside.

It is not clear yet how long the MPSR intends to govern, yet military takeovers in Guinea, Mali and Chad might influence their ability to lengthen the interim period. In fact, ECOWAS’ political credibility and the deterrent effect of sanctions has been seriously challenged by this most recent coup. Today, 3 out of ECOWAS’ 15 members are being ruled by military governments and have been suspended from the bloc. The regional body stated that the recent coups in the region have set a dangerous precedent, knowing that popular support for military leadership is increasing because of governments’ inability to contain Islamist insurgency.



Analyst: Louise Van Cauwenbergh - L.VanCauwenbergh@credendo.com