Tenth Export Barometer: refocusing on markets close to home

• Almost 900 businesses took part in the tenth Export Barometer survey.
• The main go-to destination remains markets close to home: a haven of stability.
• Donald Trump’s trade policy is alarming businesses, who now view the United States as a risk to Europe.
• While the global business confidence index may have fallen, there are still genuine opportunities to be had around the world, with momentum potentially shifting to different regions.

Businesses more circumspect

Compiled by Credendo and Trends/Trends-Tendances, the tenth Export Barometer surveys some 900 companies across twenty-odd sectors. This year's edition highlights a marked downturn in the mood of Belgian businesses: the global confidence index has fallen to 5.7 out of 10, as compared with 6.1 in 2024. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has seen trade and geopolitical tensions ratchet up around the world, resulting in more uncertainty and instability.

Opportunities in markets close to home

For nearly eight out of ten export businesses, neighbouring countries remain by far and away the largest export market. Following behind is the rest of the EU (37%), the United Kingdom, which has improved markedly to 19% (up 4 percentage points on 2024), and other European countries (20%). 
 

With regard to export opportunities, the United States and Canada have dropped by 13 percentage points to 16% – which highlights the challenges in the current trading environment. This decrease is something of a boon to most other regions, above all Asia. As Credendo Deputy CEO Nabil Jijakli points out: ‘there is an interesting dynamic in some countries, with India, Indonesia, Central Asia and Latin America offering a myriad of opportunities for European exporters’.

The United States – now perceived as a risk

Donald Trump’s capricious and aggressive trade policy has radically altered perceptions of the United States among Belgian businesses. 44% of respondents now view the country as a risk to Europe, while 32% see it as an important trade partner, but also a competitor. Such a newly defined role for the United States is having a direct impact on investment strategies: 38% of respondents believe that European businesses should stop investing in the country altogether.
 

President Trump’s tariff increases have compounded the prevailing mood of uncertainty, forcing businesses to seek out more settled markets. What’s more, the businesses we surveyed sense a loss of momentum in global trade. As Nabil Jijakli points out, ‘one of the striking aspects of the survey is the fact that four out of ten businesses are not expecting their exports to increase over the next three years’. 
 

In light of the increase in geopolitical tensions, eight out of ten businesses believe that Europe should increase defence spending in order to guarantee its own long-term security. That said, businesses are also urging a more considered approach towards defence funding.

Costs and conflict – the main factors weighing on exports

Unsurprisingly, when we asked exporting businesses about the major events that have affected exports, geopolitical and trade frictions came out on top, with 62% of respondents citing a negative impact (up 8 percentage points from 2024). However, despite a drop-off from last year, fluctuations in the cost of energy and raw materials are still the most problematic current affairs issue for 65% of respondents, while production costs in Belgium remain the most frequently cited barrier to exports (42%). 
 

It is also worth noting how businesses heavily geared towards exports, i.e. those generating at least 75% of their turnover abroad, appear particularly wary of protectionist measures, with 31% of them viewing them as a handicap.

Fewer losses due to unpaid invoices

Despite facing more and more obstacles, export businesses say that they have incurred fewer actual losses. Far fewer cited unpaid invoices this year (32%, an 11-point reduction on 2024). The increasing use of hedging instruments to guard against commercial and financial risks is also no small matter. Bank guarantees, which are used by 33% of the businesses we surveyed, now rank ahead of 100% advance payment (29%). This may be explained by foreign clients being unwilling to shoulder all of the risk in an acutely uncertain environment. After this is credit insurance (at 24%) – a stock in trade for Credendo and used by 50% of the businesses that generate more than 75% of their turnover abroad.