Serbia: Seismic election result ousts long-serving leader and dominant party from power

Event

On 25 October, the snap parliamentary election brought a major political shift: after twelve years in power, former President Aleksandar Vučić and his ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) lost to the leaderless, student-led opposition movement. With 53% of the vote, compared with 39% for the SNS, the Student List won 141 seats, securing a majority in the 250-seat parliament. The record turnout of 69% proved decisive: Vučić conceded defeat, paving the way for a new political direction over the next four years.

Impact

The defeat of the nationalist SNS, in power since 2012, and its leader Vučić marks a turning point in Serbia’s political history. This echoes a similar electoral upset last April in another South-Eastern European country, Hungary, under Viktor Orbán. Years of anti-government student protests and growing opposition to Vučić’s long-standing rule ultimately proved decisive. The protests focused primarily on perceived corruption – which intensified after the deadly collapse of the concrete canopy of the main railway station in Novi Sad in November 2024 – weakened government accountability – notably in the case of the large-scale lithium mine project facing local opposition – and rising authoritarianism.

However, the initial popular enthusiasm is expected to give way to a challenging period due to the political inexperience of prospective candidates from the civil society to the post of ministers, the lack of a real opposition leader and the uncertainty about consensus over a range of policies. Nevertheless, the parliamentary majority secured by the Student List gives it a strong mandate and time to change the course set by the previous administration, although another challenge is just around the corner with presidential elections scheduled for the end of December.

Tackling corruption and reversing the erosion of democratic institutions are expected to be key government policies. However, the dominant ruling party having gradually established extensive state control over the judiciary, media and economy, overcoming vested interests related to Vučić’s system promises to be challenging. The political shift could also offer a fresh start for Serbia’s currently frozen accession process to EU membership, encouraging reforms that could benefit investment and business. At the same time, the next PM will have to navigate Russian influence, which remains an important partner in the eyes of a good share of the Serbian population given the two countries’ historic and cultural ties. Therefore, a status quo in Serbia’s stance on US and EU sanctions against Russia is to be expected. Furthermore, Serbia is likely to maintain its close collaboration with China, a major investor in the country, continuing its diversified diplomatic and economic approach to foreign policy. And the future government is expected to work towards normalising bilateral relations with Kosovo after years of heightened tensions. However, formal recognition of Kosovo is not in the pipeline.

Although this fundamental political shift could provide a positive risk outlook, Credendo is keeping its risk ratings unchanged for now.

Analyst: Raphaël Cecchi – r.cecchi@credendo.com