Short-term political risk: Ghana, Malaysia and Mongolia upgraded, Thailand downgraded

In the framework of its regular review of short-term (ST) political risk, Credendo has upgraded three countries and downgraded one country.
 

• Ghana: upgrade from 5/7 to 4/7

Ghana’s economy continues its strong recovery following the 2022 sovereign default. Foreign exchange reserves have risen above pre-default levels and more than doubled between mid-2024 and June 2026, when they reached USD 11 billion. This is equivalent to roughly four months of imports and represents a healthy liquidity position. Thanks to soaring gold export revenues, the current account has shifted into a substantial surplus (see graph). This surplus is expected to stick despite high refined-fuel import costs resulting indirectly from the conflict in the Gulf region. These are the main drivers behind the upgrade of Ghana’s short-term political risk classification from 5/7 to 4/7. Remaining vulnerabilities are linked to Ghana’s exposure to fluctuations in the cedi and commodity prices, while spillovers from the violent insurgency along the northern border with Burkina Faso also pose a risk to the near-term outlook.

• Malaysia: upgrade from 2/7 to 1/7

The country’s strong liquidity position has improved further since 2025 on the back of an upward trend in foreign exchange reserves. This trend has accelerated this year amid booming exports of hi-tech and AI-related products, particularly towards the USA and China. Like several other Asian economies, including China, Vietnam, Taiwan and Singapore, Malaysia is well placed to benefit from strong global demand for electronics goods. As one of the region’s few net energy exporters, the country can also withstand the impact of the conflict in the Middle East while benefiting from higher fuel export prices. As a result, Malaysia has a large current account surplus and attracts substantial foreign direct investment (FDI). Moreover, it has easy access to international financial markets and a sovereign wealth fund that could provide a buffer in case of a shock. Although a future correction in the AI boom, geopolitical tensions and trade protectionism could hinder the current positive trend, stronger liquidity and a favourable outlook for exports and FDI have led to Malaysia’s upgrade to the best short-term political risk category of 1/7.