Mozambique: Alleged fraudulent elections have brought the country into an uncertain period of political instability

Event

As largely anticipated, the Frelimo party, which has ruled the country since its independence in 1975, easily won the 9 October elections, thereby keeping the presidency and an absolute majority in parliament. Frelimo candidate Chapo obtained more than 70% of the votes and should become the next president. However, this successful result was recorded amid a low turnout and has been rejected by the leading opposition party Podemos on the back of alleged widespread electoral fraud. These allegations have been corroborated by independent observers. Since then, the country has been marked by strikes and unrest, which have been violently repressed. The assassination of two Podemos figures – who appealed against the election outcome – exacerbated tensions further.  

Impact

Frelimo has a history of questionable electoral victories. Therefore, the party is unlikely to change tactics, at least as a first option, relying rather on security forces to quell protests and hoping that public attention wanes over time. However, the magnitude of this year’s protests, the opposition’s determination and intra-party dissensions could raise pressures on Frelimo to eventually make some concessions in view of the high political instability expected in the coming weeks/months. Prolonged political instability and strikes could harm the country’s economic outlook in 2025, including the resumption of TotalEnergies’s suspended mega LNG project in the unstable Cabo Delgado province. Besides, the country’s wide current account deficit is expected to roughly stabilise above 30% of GDP next year. Moreover, debt service repayments will further increase. Those factors will continue to prevent a substantial improvement in the relatively low foreign exchange reserves, despite the support from large FDI inflows and upbeat prospects from the commodity sector. Hence, for the time being and amid political uncertainty, Credendo maintains its short-term political risk rating in the highest category 7/7.

Analyst: Raphaël Cecchi – r.cecchi@credendo.com