Business environment risk: Three upgrades

In the framework of its regular review of business environment risk, Credendo upgraded a small number of countries, three in total.

Business environment risk

• Kyrgyzstan: upgrade from G/G to F/G

The country’s business environment risk classification was downgraded to category G/G in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and remained in this category in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite these significant challenges, the business environment has since improved, driven by reduced inflation, an eased monetary policy (see lower interest rates) and a substantial increase in bank credit to the private sector. Additionally, real GDP growth has rebounded sharply from its 2020 contraction and the exchange rate has stabilised. Consequently, Credendo has decided to upgrade the business environment risk to category F/G, still a high-risk category considering Kyrgyzstan’s very weak institutional framework.

• Mauritania: upgrade from F/G to E/G

The Mauritanian economy is enjoying an accelerating GDP growth – from 4.8% in 2023 to more than 5% this year – driven by its mining exports. Indeed, iron ore and gold exports benefit from expanding production. Stronger data could be reached next year if delays around the start of offshore LNG exports (from the Grand Tortue Ahmeyim project) are overcome. Those developments could help reduce the country’s large current account deficit, whereas rising investor attractiveness in the commodity sector will support FDI and the balance of payments. Besides, inflation is evolving at low levels, reaching 2.7% last August, and the currency has stabilised so far this year. Therefore, in a context of political stability – after President Ghazouani was re-elected in June – those positive economic and financial developments have led to an upgrade of the business environment risk to E/G.