Sierra Leone: Recent coup attempt may fuel political repression

Event

On 26 November, gunmen attacked several military sites in Freetown and freed almost 2,000 prisoners. After a heavy exchange of fire with the army, the alleged coup attempt was foiled. Opposition leader Koroma (former president in 2007–2018) was recently put under house arrest after being questioned by the police about his possible involvement in the coup attempt.

Impact

President Julius Maada Bio of the ruling Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), was re-elected for a second term in June 2023, following elections that were marred by irregularities. The opposition All People’s Congress (APC) rejected the election results and started boycotting national legislature and local councils. After the coup, the government arrested about 70 people, among which one of opposition leader Koroma’s bodyguards. It is unclear whether there was real opposition involvement in the coup or whether the situation is being instrumentalised by the SLPP to crack down on the opposition. If it turns out that prosecutions for the coup are politically motivated, this would raise the risk for political instability and unrest in the future. Moreover, the US government’s Millennium Challenge Corporation may cancel a USD 450 million investment in the energy sector over political and governance concerns, especially since the USA also announced visa restrictions as a reaction to the undemocratic conducts during the election this summer. For now, Credendo has not tightened its position on the country, whose ST political risk is classified in category 5/7 and MLT political risk in the highest risk category, 7/7. The attempted coup further raises concerns over democratic decline in the region, as the number of (attempted) coups since 2020, when also including this month’s upheaval in Guinea Bissau, amounts to about 13. As a reaction to the recent events in Sierra Leone, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States) announced the potential deployment of regional military forces in the country in order to prevent another coup attempt.

Analyst: Louise Van Cauwenbergh – l.vancauwenbergh@credendo.com