Myanmar: First elections since military coup will not alter civil war dynamics

Event  

As from 28 December, general elections are being held for the first time since the 2021 military coup that was followed by a still ongoing civil war. Those elections, organised in three phases under the army’s tight control and ending on 25 January, are taking place only in geographical areas that are under the junta’s control. As expected, given the absence of any tolerated real opposition – San Suu Kyi’s popular NLD party having notably been dissolved – the military-backed USDP is going to win the elections by an overwhelming margin. Although those polls will not alter the conflict dynamics, the junta is using elections to restore its legitimacy in the eyes of the external world as it hopes to rebuild bilateral ties. Looking ahead, no resolution of the conflict is in sight in the foreseeable future.

Impact

The fact that roughly half of the country is held by the opposition and that most of the population rejects the junta’s legitimacy means that the latest elections will have no concrete impact on the armed conflict. Local armed ethnic groups and “people’s defence forces” representing the opposition will continue their fight against the junta with a very uncertain final outcome to the conflict. A stalemate is the likely scenario for this year. Still, the junta is determined to move forward, fighting for its survival and capitalising on the progress made on the ground last year when it retook several areas from the opposition. Those gains were explained by ceasefires with some ethnic groups and the heightened defence support from China, which has allowed an intensification of military attacks, notably in the air. Indeed, Beijing wants to ensure stability in ethnic-controlled areas of high trade and economic interest. In the coming months, it is possible that other Asian countries (e.g. Cambodia, Vietnam or India) besides trade partners like China and Thailand, will approach the junta and rebuild ties.

The fragmented country is harmed by high insecurity, huge war damages (adding to the severe earthquake of March 2025) and recurrent power cuts. As a result, the economic crisis will continue and is characterised by GDP contraction since FY2024, high inflation at around 30%, a lack of foreign exchange and absent investments. An important share of the impoverished population will have to keep relying on informal and/or illicit work for their livelihoods as illustrated by the booming opium production, expansion of human trafficking and scam industry. In those circumstances, data accuracy and a reliable assessment of the actual economic situation remain challenging.

The gloomy security situation, economic picture and outlook at a national level will maintain the status quo in Myanmar’s highest political risk ratings.

Analyst: Raphaël Cecchi – r.cecchi@credendo.com