Credendo Webinar highlights: Conflict in the Middle East with a focus on Türkiye

The current conflict in the Middle East and its global implications made this topic a natural focus for Credendo’s webinar on 23 April, which attracted record participation. The session brought together Credendo experts and external guest speakers to discuss the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, its economic impact and the consequences for international trade, with a particular focus on Türkiye.

Close monitoring of a conflict with wide ranging repercussions

The webinar was opened by Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO of Credendo, who stressed that civilians are the first victims of the conflict in the Middle East. He highlighted the impact of higher energy prices on inflation and supply chains, and the impact on several sectors, such as the maritime and air sectors. Nabil Jijakli explained that Credendo is closely monitoring risks and downgraded some countries, such as the United Arab Emirates, and placed Bahrain off cover for the public sector, while Iran and Lebanon were already fully off cover. He also underlined that the upcoming Belgian Economic Mission to Türkiye remains important, pointing to Türkiye’s robust and diversified economy and its particular position in the current regional context.

Geopolitical outlook for the Middle East

Against this backdrop, the first keynote speaker, Koert Debeuf, Professor of Middle East and International Politics at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel, provided a broader geopolitical perspective on the conflict and the future of the region. He explained that the US Israeli operation against Iran has failed to achieve its objectives and risks further destabilising the region. He warned that prolonged escalation could lead to a broader regional or even global conflict, while diplomatic options remain fragile due to deep mistrust. Koert Debeuf noted that, although several regional and global actors continue to seek stability, this dynamic has been severely weakened and pointed to significant economic and reputational damage for Gulf countries and the erosion of the rules based international order.

Implications and global fallout

Pascaline della Faille, Country and Sector Risk Manager at Credendo, analysed the economic consequences of the ongoing conflict. She explained how the escalation has disrupted energy markets, supply chains and key transport routes. Rising energy prices and pressure on the fertiliser and food markets are amplifying inflationary risks and weighing on economic activity and trade prospects worldwide, well beyond the Middle East itself. Pascaline della Faille stressed however that the scale of these effects will largely depend on the duration and severity of the conflict.

Focus on Türkiye

Further in the webinar, Pascaline della Faille zoomed in on Türkiye’s risk profile in this volatile regional context. Supported by Türkiye’s diversified economy and solid public finances, Credendo upgraded Türkiye’s ST and MLT political risk ratings in December 2025. Nevertheless, the country remains vulnerable to external shocks amid its reliance on external financing. Persistently high inflation and continued exchange depreciation, combined with renewed external pressures linked to the conflict, including higher energy and food prices, have led Credendo to downgrade Türkiye’s business environment risk after the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East.

Doing business in Türkiye in these volatile times

The webinar concluded with a business testimonial by Atila Demirhan, General Manager Sales at Vandewiele Istanbul. He shared the experience of Vandewiele, a Belgian textile machinery manufacturer active in Türkiye since 1999. Atila Demirhan explained that Türkiye remains an important market for Vandewiele and a base for serving neighbouring export markets. He concluded by underlining the importance of Credendo’s risk mitigation solutions in facilitating export financing and supporting long term investment projects in Türkiye.

Credendo’s next hybrid webinar event will take place on 18 June, featuring the results of the Export Barometer 2026: be sure to mark it in your agenda.