Webinar “Global Risk Atlas”
During our first webinar of 2025, we discussed the impacts of geopolitical risks facing our world and exporters today, with a specific focus on the USA. The webinar followed the publication of the “Global Risk Atlas 2025”, which Credendo released in collaboration with the magazine Trends/Trends-Tendances.
The year 2025 promises to be eventful, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine for instance, rising populism, geopolitical tensions, ageing populations and climate change. Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO of Credendo, highlighted the importance of addressing these challenges, in particular the demographic transition: “We are reaching an unknown period in our history with a population that is stabilising or decreasing all over the world, except in Africa.”
Overview of geopolitical tensions across the world
Credendo’s country risk analysts, Raphaël Cecchi and Andres Hernandez Cardona, provided an overview of the current situation in Europa, Asia and the Middle East. With Russia gaining ground in Ukraine and the USA reducing support, there is great uncertainty in Europe. Meanwhile, the US-China rivalry is intensifying, especially around Taiwan. Regional tensions in the Middle East remain high despite the fragile ceasefire agreements between Israel, Hezbollah and Hamas.
Focus on the USA, a month after Donald Trump took office
Our webinar’s keynote speaker, David Criekemans, Associate Professor in International Relations at the University of Antwerp, commented that Donald Trump’s new policies are expected to bring surprises, with chaos being a deliberate strategy. He explained that Trump’s internal policies, aimed at overhauling the federal government, are closely linked to his external policies and are leading to fear. Externally, Trump has announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China, which are resulting in retaliatory measures and uncertainty about future trade deals. David Criekemans emphasised the need for European companies to reassess their supply chains and for Europe to seek strategic partnerships with countries like Canada.
“We need to turn to a new paradigm. We need to work on competitiveness and invest heavily in defence, economic renewal and technology, and look at obstructions within our own internal markets”, the professor said. Finally, he expressed concern about the broader geopolitical consequences of Trump’s approach, including the risk of Ukraine and Europe becoming collateral damage of the US-Russia relations, and Trump’s attempt to isolate China.
The voices of the industries
Kevin Verbelen, Senior Expert International Trade at Agoria, discussed how the manufacturing and technological industries are coping with the complex international environment. He highlighted significant job losses and how we have been cycling from crisis to crisis for the last 20 years. Despite these challenges, Kevin Verbelen pointed out that there are opportunities for Europe and Belgium to improve their regulatory environment and resilience.
Risk analysis, as well as innovative, flexible support are also crucial in supporting exports and the economy, especially during crises like the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. This is where Credendo can be of help to businesses.
We would like to conclude with the positive words from Professor Criekemans and Nabil Jijakli: “ The coming 18 months will be challenging, as we enter a new era where public investments and ECAs will play their role.”
Credendo’s next webinar is scheduled on 3 April. Keep an eye on our socials and website for more details.