Venezuela: Maduro seems ready to embark on his third presidential term

Event

In the end of July, President Maduro won a third presidential term. The victory was announced without releasing any tabulated results. Violent unrest and international condemnation followed, while UN experts monitoring the elections reported that the vote "lacked basic transparency and integrity". Nevertheless, the Venezuelan Supreme Court confirmed Maduro’s electoral victory at the end of August. In September, the opposition candidate Edmundo González Urrutia – who is widely believed to have won the election – fled the country after an arrest warrant.

Impact

President Maduro will likely remain in power in the foreseeable future, despite the disputed election results. This is primarily due to the loyalty of the army, an entrenched patronage system and large-scale suppression of protests. Furthermore, international pressure seems already on the wane. However, Maduro’s position seems weaker than in the past and a shift in power cannot be ruled out.

Amid foreign exchange shortages, Venezuela is classified in the highest country risk category (7/7) for the short-term and medium- to long-term political risks, with a stable outlook.

Analyst: Jolyn Debuysscher – j.debuysscher@credendo.com