2024 Export Barometer: cautious optimism

• Over 1,000 businesses took part in the ninth Export Barometer survey.
• Business optimism is on the rise, despite a resurgence of export risks and disincentives.
• Rising production costs and geopolitical risks are exporters’ main concerns. 
• Businesses are conscious of export risks, with the risk of non-payment affecting four in ten, and are protecting themselves against it.

Business optimism is on the rise

With over 1,000 businesses from over twenty different sectors taking part, and the majority of respondents holding managerial roles, the 2024 Export Barometer organised by Credendo and Trends/Trends-Tendances once again provides a reliable picture of how businesses view the international climate and its impact on their exports. ‘Businesses seem to be adapting, despite the increase in geopolitical tensions, which was the theme of this ninth Export Barometer’, said Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO of Credendo. The confidence indicator has risen from 5.9 in 2023 to 6.1 this year, the second-highest figure since the Barometer was launched (it reached 6.3 in 2017). ‘This testifies to the great resilience and adaptability of Belgian businesses to the crises seen in recent years’, continued Nabil Jijakli.

Rising production costs and increase in geopolitical risks

Energy and raw materials prices continue to affect foreign sales for seven out of ten exporting businesses. This level is still high, but shows a decline compared with previous years (80% in 2023). The war in Ukraine (from 69% in 2023 to 64% in 2024) and supply problems (from 59% to 53%) are also easing. However, geopolitical tensions (trade conflict between the United States and China, armed conflict in the Middle East, etc.) are cited more often than last year (from 44% in 2023 to 54% in 2024), a sign that businesses are affected by conflicts in the world.

When asked about barriers to export encountered by Belgian businesses, rising production costs were the most frequently cited obstacle (49%, compared with 33% in 2023), undoubtedly a consequence of the high wage indexing in 2023 and high energy costs. The second most frequently cited obstacle is red tape (30%), which sometimes amounts to disguised protectionism through the raising of non-tariff barriers. The third most cited obstacle is, unsurprisingly, the resurgence of political risks (26%). The only time such risks have been mentioned more frequently was in 2016 during the vote in favour of Brexit in the United Kingdom. Finally, there has been a very sharp rise in the risk of non-payment (25%), from which businesses can protect themselves.

More than half the world’s population has been or will be called to the ballot box in 2024. The Export Barometer respondents will no doubt be watching the results of the US elections carefully: 88% believe that a victory for Donald Trump would increase geopolitical tensions around the world. More broadly, eight out of ten respondents are concerned about the rise of populism across the world and in Europe. A large majority of businesses are hoping for an improvement in terms of trade with the United States (following the protectionist measures included in the Inflation Reduction Act) and China.  

Increased use of hedging against export-related risks 

On average, each export business reported 1.5 negative experiences in 2024, confirming the drop observed since 2022 (1.8). Specifically, the origin of these losses remains largely stable, with unpaid invoices still at the top of the list at 43%. The proportion even exceeds 60% among businesses that are very active in exports. Unsurprisingly, political risks in the broadest sense (wars, revolutions, inability to transfer currency, natural disasters, etc.) continue to rise to 33%, compared with 27% in 2023 and 16% in 2021. Fortunately, more and more businesses are protecting themselves against export-related risks. The proportion of businesses with no coverage (22%) has fallen by one third since 2021 (33%). To protect themselves against the risk of non-payment, which affects four in ten businesses, 100% advance payments remains the most frequently cited protection (33%), while bank guarantees (27%) come second, just ahead of credit insurance (25%), which is also increasingly popular.

Find out more
Discover all the results of the 9th Export Barometer conducted by Credendo and Trends/Trends-Tendances here.

Spokesperson:                
Nabil Jijakli                    
Deputy CEO                    
rue Montoyerstraat 3                
1000 Brussels                    
E n.jijakli@credendo.com
M +32 478 25 11 33

Press contact:
Griet Van Gorp
Content and Press Relation Specialist
E g.vangorp@credendo.com 
M +32 473 33 20 50