Webinar and client event on the results of the eleventh Export Barometer
During its hybrid webinar on 18 June, Credendo commented on the results of the eleventh Export Barometer, organised in collaboration with Trends/Trends-Tendances. The Export Barometer provides an overview of the export situation by means of recurring questions asked of exporting businesses. This year’s edition focused on the strengths and weaknesses of the European Union and the impact of the geopolitical situation on the economic climate and export.
Negative mix of high energy costs and geopolitical tensions
Ineke Uyttersprot, Research Manager at Roularta, presented the findings of the yearly survey, which collected opinions from hundreds of companies across various sectors. The results highlighted a marked deterioration in Belgian business morale. The overall business confidence indicator has fallen to 5.5 out of 10, equalling the lows of 2020 (Covid) and 2022 (invasion of Ukraine). This can be explained by a mix of high and volatile energy costs and conflicts, which are directly impacting the export activities of 74–79% of respondents.
Continued and increasing impact of geopolitical conflicts on export
Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO of Credendo, focused on some of the major outcomes of the survey, which indicates that geopolitical tensions are increasingly reshaping trade dynamics. Companies view the USA more cautiously, with many considering it a risk for Europe, while both US policies and Europe’s dependence on China are seen as threats to competitiveness. Russia remains a major risk, despite calls to maintain sanctions, and instability in Iran further undermines confidence in key regions. At the same time, businesses strongly support increased European defence and autonomy. As a result, exporters are shifting towards safer, nearby markets, while calling for stronger European leadership in an increasingly fragmented global environment.
Europe faces a stark choice: change or perish
Raoul Delcorde, Honorary Ambassador of Belgium and Member of the Royal Academy of Belgium, gave the keynote address. He highlighted that Europe is no longer setting the pace of global developments but is increasingly reacting to external shocks in a fragmented and unstable world. Growing nationalism, power politics and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the global order, challenging Europe’s traditional model. In this context, the EU must strengthen its strategic autonomy by reinforcing defence, technological capacity and economic resilience, while maintaining its democratic and social values. Closer engagement with emerging economies and renewed multilateralism are essential. Ultimately, Europe faces a decisive choice: adapt proactively to global shifts or risk a gradual loss of influence and relevance.
The weaponisation of the world economy
Pascaline della Faille, Country and Sector Risk Manager at Credendo, and Raphaël Cecchi, Senior Country and Sector Risk Analyst at Credendo, pointed out that economic interdependence is increasingly used as a tool of geopolitical leverage. While not new, this ‘weaponisation’ has intensified amid a shifting global order marked by rivalry between major powers. The USA and China both use trade, technology, financial systems and critical resources to advance strategic interests. This evolution is driving a more neo-mercantilist approach, where economic relations are shaped by national power and security concerns. As a result, countries are seeking greater resilience through diversification, regionalisation and strategic autonomy, even at the expense of efficiency.
Ravago faces global challenges thanks to diversification
The event ended with a panel discussion between Nabil Jijakli, Deputy CEO Credendo, Stefaan Van Boxstael, General Manager of Credendo – Trade Credit Insurance, Pascaline della Faille, Raoul Delcorde and Hilde Wellens, Credit Manager at Ravago Group, a client of Credendo. Hilde Wellens highlighted the challenging market environment – shaped by geopolitical tensions, overcapacity and shifting demand patterns – Ravago, as a global player in the petrochemical and recycling sector, is facing, while emphasising the company’s resilience thanks to its global presence and diversified activities. She explained how it leverages its broad footprint across regions and industries to remain flexible in volatile conditions. She also underlined the importance of disciplined management, strict cost control and targeted investments to support sustainable growth, including expansion through both organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions.